Meeting Date:   11/18/2019 - 7:00 PM
Category:   District Reports
Type:   Info
Subject:   Information Report #1911-09 - Enrollment Projections
File Attachment:  
Enrollment Projection-Final 19-20.pdf
LTHS Enrollment History and Projection Graph.pdf
Historical K-8 Enrollment.pdf
Summary All public school districts in Illinois must submit their Fall Enrollment Counts to the Illinois State Board of Education by October 15. The Fall Enrollment Counts for our feeder elementary districts are used to complete the Annual Enrollment Projection for Lockport Township High School District 205. The projection is completed using the widely accepted Cohort Survival Method. In this method the graduation ratios from one grade to another are recorded and applied to future years. A three-year average for each grade is utilized.

This year there is an overall decrease of 115 students in our feeder districts. This is the 8th consecutive year of decreases in overall feeder enrollment. Homer CCSD 33C is the only feeder district that did not experience a decrease in enrollment from 2018-19 to 2019-20. District 33C's increase was 25 students. The largest decrease was Richland GSD 88A with a decrease of 80 students.(*St. Joseph would not give us detailed enrollment figures this year, but rather said there are approximately 23 students per class. This made St. Joseph enrollment appear to increase for 2019-20, however this increase may not be accurate.)

The enrollment projection included with this memo strictly follows the Cohort Enrollment Projection model. Based on the projections, LTHS's enrollment is expected to increase next year and again slightly in 2022-23, before it steadily declines when LTHS finally experiences the decline that our feeder districts have experienced in recent years. LTHS's enrollment is expected to top out at approximately 3,953 students in the 2020-21 school year. Since any projection's accuracy decreases the further out into the future you try to project, a five-year enrollment projection is being presented to the Board of Education at this time. This also makes the enrollment projections consistent with the financial projections that have been historically presented to the Board. Five-year financial projections are expected to be updated and presented to the Board in the coming winter months.

In summary, LTHS District 205 enrollment is expected to increase only a small amount next year over current enrollment and decline from there. East Campus should have no problems housing the projected enrollment in the near future. However, Central Campus may need to be creative with space for one more year as next year's incoming freshman class is expected to exceed 1,000 students. LTHS staffing is not expected to be impacted until possibly the 2024-25 school year, however it would be LTHS Adminstration's goal to reduce staff through attrition by not replacing retirees, if at all possible.
Recommended By:
Signed By:  
Stefanie Croix - Director of Business Services
Signed By:  
Robert McBride Ed.D - Superintendent